How Mixl works
Twentyseasonsin.Onehonestnumberout.
Mixl is a data pipeline with a scoreboard: ingest everything, train nightly under rules that make cheating impossible, price the slate, and grade every call in public.
- [ 2002 ]
- seasons on file
- [ 10k+ ]
- sims per matchup
- [ 5+ ]
- markets priced daily
- [ 100% ]
- calls logged first
The pipeline
From raw pitches to a priced slate
The corpus
Every game, box score, play, pitch and plate appearance since 2002 — plus posted lineups, probable starters, injuries, park weather and sportsbook lines — lands in Mixl's own store. Live games merge in within seconds of the final out.
It isn't a feed we rent by the call; it's a warehouse we own and control, so a model can look back across two decades in one query and a live game becomes history the moment it ends.
- Every pitch, play and plate appearance — not just box scores.
- Lineups, probables, injuries, park weather and book lines, joined.
- Live games become history within seconds of the final out.
the corpus
every pitch, play & PA — one store, one query
Point-in-time discipline
Every row is stamped with when it was actually knowable. Models can only train on what existed at decision time — no peeking at the future, the single most common way sports models silently cheat.
Rolling stats are shifted, forecasts are never backfilled, and econ-style vintages are honored. A feature that couldn't have been seen before first pitch is structurally unavailable to the model that predicts it.
- Every row stamped with the instant it became knowable.
- Rolling stats shifted; forecasts never backfilled.
- Backtests read as-of — the model can't see its own future.
point-in-time
shift(1) · as-of reads · no backfilled forecasts
a model can't see data it couldn't have known
Nightly training, walk-forward only
Models retrain on fresh data every night. A challenger replaces a champion only by beating it out-of-sample, walk-forward across seasons — never by fitting the past harder.
The champion is the number you see; a challenger has to win on data it was never trained on before it's allowed to take the mound. Overfitting the past earns nothing here.
- Retrains on fresh data every single night.
- A challenger must win out-of-sample to take over.
- Walk-forward across seasons — never refitting the past.
nightly training
out-of-sample window →
tested out-of-sample, walk-forward across seasons
The board
Each day the engine prices the slate — game winners, totals, run lines, strikeout and batter props — and quotes our probability next to the sportsbook consensus and the live Kalshi price.
You don't get a number in a vacuum. Our model sits side-by-side with the market so the disagreement — the edge — is the thing you actually read.
- Winners, totals, run lines, strikeout and batter props.
- Our probability beside the sportsbook consensus.
- And beside the live Kalshi price — the edge is the gap.
the board
the gap between the two is the edge
Receipts, in public
Every model call is logged before first pitch and scored against the settlement. The track record page shows the hits, the misses and the calibration — not a highlight reel.
Calls are stamped and locked before the game, benchmarked against de-vigged closing lines, and graded on calibration nightly. Settled misses stay up — there's no quiet deleting of the ones that didn't land.
- Every call locked and logged before first pitch.
- Scored against the settlement, graded on calibration.
- Settled misses stay up — nothing quietly deleted.
receipts, in public
graded against the close — misses stay up
You, in the loop
Search the corpus in plain English, run your own Monte Carlo simulations, and see where our numbers disagree with the market. The data argues; you decide.
Ask a question and get the game log behind the answer. Simulate a matchup ten thousand times — fifty thousand on Pro — and watch the distribution form. Every conclusion traces back to a row you can check.
- Ask in plain English, get the game log behind the answer.
- Simulate any matchup 10,000 times — 50,000 on Pro.
- See exactly where our number disagrees with the market.
you, in the loop
the data argues; you decide
The data argues
Watch the number sharpen itself
This is one real matchup, simulated ten thousand times. The win-probability line settles and its 95% confidence band collapses like 1/√N — the reason a distribution beats a hot take. Not told; drawn.
The discipline
Rules that keep the numbers honest
Walk-forward or it doesn't ship
A model only sees the past when it predicts. Backtests that leak tomorrow's data into today's features are how 90% accuracy claims are minted — ours are structurally impossible to mint that way.
Why it matters: leakage is the difference between a number that looked great in a slide and one that survives contact with a live game.
Benchmarked against the market
Every model is scored against de-vigged sportsbook closing lines — the hardest baseline there is. Beating a coin flip is easy; the honest question is beating the close.
Why it matters: the closing line already absorbs the sharp money, so beating it is the only bar that means anything.
Calibration over bravado
A 60% call should land 60% of the time. We publish calibration, and our models are graded on it nightly — confident and wrong is the one thing the pipeline won't tolerate.
Why it matters: a well-calibrated 58% beats a loud, miscalibrated 80% every time you have to act on it.
Demo money only
The autonomous trading side runs on demo funds while the track record accrues. No real-money bravado, no pressure to overclaim.
Why it matters: nothing about the numbers you see is bent to defend a position we're holding.
The proof is on the track record page — every call, scored after settlement.
Where to start
Three doors in
Search the corpus
Ask anything — "Ohtani's last 10 games", "Yankees first-5-innings record" — and get the full game log behind every answer.
Open searchSimulate a game
Watch a sample Monte Carlo run right now, then simulate any matchup yourself with a free account.
Run a simWatch the board
Game winners, totals and props quoted live against our models, with the market price alongside.
See the boardSeethereceiptsforyourself.
Free accounts get the search, three simulations a day, and one unlocked model pick daily.
Free account · 3 simulations a day · no card required